U.S. Office on Colombia

To:      Foreign Policy Aides

From:  Neil Jeffery, Executive Director
           Peter Clark, Senior Associate

Date:    October 31, 2003

Re:       Analysis of Colombia's Elections: Voters Reject Both          President Uribe's Policies and Guerrillas
 

On October 25^th a government-sponsored referendum went before Colombia's voters, and local elections were held the following day. The political and economic reforms in the 15-point referendum would have limited public spending, consolidated President Alvaro Uribe's power and introduced anti-corruption measures. According to the Washington Post, "Uribe had portrayed [the referendum] as a vote of confidence on his 14-month administration." Uribe campaigned furiously for passage of the referendum, but failed to turn out the 6,200,000 voters (25% of the registered electorate) required for approval. Voters' rejection of the referendum demonstrates that support for Uribe -- and his hard-line security initiatives -- is not as high as has been reported.

The results of key elections on October 26^th also demonstrate Colombians' wariness of Uribe and government-backed candidates. Independent center-left politicians won mayoral contests in Colombia's biggest cities, Bogotá, Medellín, and Cali, in addition to smaller urban centers, such as the city of Barrancabermeja. In Bogotá, former union leader Luis Eduardo "Lucho" Garzon of the Polo Democrático Independiente party won the mayoral race with a convincing victory over the candidate aligned with President Uribe. Garzon has been critical of both the Uribe administration and the FARC guerrillas. Historically, pro-government paramilitary forces have assassinated prominent leftist candidates, including multiple presidential candidates.

Despite the setback, Uribe is unlikely to abandon his aggressive agenda, including efforts to expand military operations, cut spending, and pardon demobilized paramilitaries. He will continue to pursue the referendum points related to combating corruption, seeking legislative approval for the reforms while mending relations with his traditional congressional allies. While most of the substance of his agenda will remain unchanged, the election results imply a loss of momentum that may force him to moderate his tone and public image. To that end, he may accept the resignation of outspoken Interior Minister Fernando Londoño. The election outcome will also strengthen Colombia's Congress, civil society, and the Polo Democrático Independiente party as counterweights to Uribe. Mayor-elect Garzon, assuming Colombia's second most important elected office, is predicted to lead and consolidate the center-left opposition to President Uribe. On election night, both leaders were conciliatory, promising to work together in a spirit of cooperation.

By largely supporting Garzon's center-left mayoral bid, human rights activists once again demonstrated the inaccuracy of Uribe's recent accusations that they are "spokesmen for terrorism." They showed their preference for ballots over bullets -- for democratic elections rather than the guerrillas' armed approach to politics.

While some six million Colombians voted on the referendum, nearly 12 million voted in local elections, signaling their commitment to democracy in the face of guerrilla and paramilitary violence. The elections also dealt a blow to the guerrillas, as Garzon's success proved that leftists can gain power peacefully in a democratic Colombia. Arturo Alape, an authority on the FARC guerrillas, told the Associated Press, "The FARC will have to receive this triumph as a warning alert, because the political projects that favor social causes have a space in democracy,"

Although election day was largely free of violence, the armed conflict did impact the elections. The illegal armed groups, particularly the FARC, threatened and murdered dozens of candidates prior to the elections. In the northern paramilitary-dominated provinces of Cesar and Magdalena, a substantial number of voters left their ballots blank to protest the election of unopposed gubernatorial candidates they perceived as beholden to the paramilitary forces. Three candidates who were jailed prior to the elections on charges of supporting the guerrillas won their mayoral races in Arauca and Risaralda provinces.

For more information, contact Neil Jeffery at neil_jeffery@usofficeoncolombia.org or 202-232-8090.

Executive Director
US Office on Colombia
1630 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 201
Washington DC 20009
Phone: 202-232-8090
Fax: 202-232-7530
Website: www.usofficeoncolombia.org