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| Attorney Doug Nave offers an analysis
of the voting on Amendment O, noting that 30% of the presbyteries so far
have decided the issue by a margin of 10 votes or less.
[2-12-01]
Friends:
In response to various inquiries, below is a bit more
context for the presbytery voting so far. As reported by Covenant
Network, 25 presbyteries have voted in favor of, and 55 presbyteries
have voted against, ratification of Amendment O. Individual votes are
4339 in favor, 5324 opposed, and 79 abstaining (and there are nine
presbyteries reported without actual vote tallies, six opposed to O and
three in favor of it). The results by percentages are as follows:
 | Vote by presbyteries: 31% in favor, 69% opposed. |
| Vote by individuals: 44% in favor, 55% opposed, 1%
abstaining.
|
While forecasting on the basis of such small numbers
is fairly hazardous, the current voting patterns suggest the following:
| If all of the remaining presbyteries vote
for/against O as they voted on B, O will be defeated by a vote of 87
to 86. The issue will be resolved on April 20, with the vote of the
Presbytery of Alaska.
|
| Comparing the votes so far on O with the 1996
voting on B, proponents of O are seeing a "reversal" rate
of 38%, while opponents of O are seeing a "reversal" rate
of only 5%. If these percentages hold true in the upcoming votes --
a big "if" -- O may be defeated as early as March 10, with
a final vote across all presbyteries of approximately 64-109,
roughly 37% in favor and 63% opposed to the measure.
|
These numbers should not give anyone a false sense of
comfort -- in fact, the outcomes in 30% of the presbyteries so far have
been decided by margins of 10 votes or less. The close votes went in
favor of O eight times and against O sixteen times. It therefore remains
critical to support the voting process by educating and encouraging
people to turn out for their presbytery meetings as much as possible.
Keep the faith!
Doug |
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An index of
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BECOMING NEIGHBORS:
An Invitation
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A Witherspoon conference
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September 16 - 19, 2007
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